Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson?
Probability
53¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+41.9pp
24h Vol
$3.6K
Liquidity
$32.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 15h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the listed player who wins the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson tournamentLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 42pp over 24h
Now 53¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 41.9pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 15h.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 15 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 24, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the listed player who wins the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson tournamentLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 24, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 04:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 15.1h
- 12:52SignalMEDIUM
Momentum up
Probability moved up 41.9pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover.
- 12:52SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 15h.
Price movement
+41.9pp over the last 24h, now 53¢.
Biggest hourly move: +51.1pp at 22:00 (to 57¢).
Show top 8 of 34 hourly moves
- 08:00 · +50.0pp → 56¢
- 07:00 · +50.0pp → 56¢
- 06:00 · +50.0pp → 56¢
- 05:00 · +50.0pp → 56¢
- 03:00 · +48.2pp → 54¢
- 01:00 · +48.6pp → 55¢
- 00:00 · +48.3pp → 54¢
- 22:00 · +51.1pp → 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by May 31, 2026 at 12:00AM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
pga tourReason
PGA Tour golf market — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson?"?
As of Sat, 23 May 2026 12:52:05 GMT, YES is priced at 53% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +41.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 24, 2026 (2026-05-24T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$3.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $4.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $32.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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