PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 10, 2026
Creator

Will Harris English win the 2026 Truist Championship?

Probability

3¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

+0.9pp

24h Vol

$222.00

Liquidity

$4.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 20h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the listed player who wins the 2026 Truist Championship tournament
Link
pgatour.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 10, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 4, 2026, 17:00May 9, 2026, 03:46
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-09T03-46Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 20h.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 20 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 20.2h

    HIGH
  • 03:46Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 20h.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+0.9pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -48.9pp at 2d ago (to 1¢).

Show 4 hourly moves
  • 1d ago · +6.5pp → 8¢
  • 2d ago · -40.9pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -47.4pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -48.9pp → 1¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPGA Tour: Truist Championship Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Truist Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Truist Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the Truist Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by May 16, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

harris

Reason

Question text contains "harris" — matched the Politics keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Harris English win the 2026 Truist Championship?"?

As of Sat, 09 May 2026 03:46:20 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.9pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pgatour.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.pgatour.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$222.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $471.09. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

16 wallets
Open on Polymarket