Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of April 27 above $295?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$200.00
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 3¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 8¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 81.7h
Price movement
-8.5pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -10.5pp at 03:00 (to 3¢).
Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
- 10:20 · -10.0pp → 3¢
- 09:00 · -10.0pp → 3¢
- 07:00 · -10.0pp → 3¢
- 06:00 · -10.0pp → 3¢
- 04:00 · -9.5pp → 3¢
- 03:00 · -10.5pp → 3¢
- 02:00 · -9.5pp → 3¢
- 19:00 · -8.5pp → 4¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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