Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 end of April?
Probability
95¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.9pp
24h Vol
$1.2K
Liquidity
$84.15
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (9.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 95¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 9.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 04Resolution proximity
Expiry in 3h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarysplit-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo FinanceTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (9.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 3.1h
- 16:56SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 3h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+2.9pp over the last 24h, now 95¢.
Biggest hourly move: -15.3pp at 2d ago (to 77¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 21:00 · +5.6pp → 93¢
- 1d ago · +8.1pp → 98¢
- 1d ago · +7.9pp → 98¢
- 1d ago · +7.6pp → 98¢
- 2d ago · -15.3pp → 77¢
- 3d ago · -5.3pp → 87¢
- 3d ago · -5.3pp → 87¢
- 4d ago · -5.7pp → 90¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
11- 95¢-1.1pp
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 end of April?
Business · Vol $172.07
- 97¢+11.5pp
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of April?
Business · Vol $344.99
- 91¢+12.0pp
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 end of April?
Business · Vol $51.14
- 45¢+4.5pp
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 end of April?
Business · Vol $668.41
- 7¢-15.9pp
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of April?
Business · Vol $757.87
- 95¢+2.2pp
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $160 end of April?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 95¢-4.0pp
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $180 end of April?
Business · Vol $0.00
- 99¢+0.4pp
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of April?
Business · Vol $10.00
- 0¢0.0pp
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Business · Vol $335.8K
- 63¢-11.5pp
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Business · Vol $206.2K
- 0¢+0.1pp
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Business · Vol $167.4K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.