Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?
Probability
51¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$69.10
Liquidity
$13.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 528.7h
- 23:16SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 529h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 50¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 46¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 48¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 50¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 51¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 51¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 50¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 50¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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