Loading shell…
OtherExpires Apr 30, 2026

Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-5.0pp

24h Vol

$1.7K

Liquidity

$15.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.9pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 13:00Apr 25, 2026, 11:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 108.1h

    LOW
  • 11:54Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 11:54Price

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 6.9pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.2pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting member of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff ceases to hold their respective position on the Joint Chiefs of Staff for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Positions on the Joint Chiefs of Staff include: Chairman, Vice Chairman, Chief of Staff of the Army, Commandant of the Marine Corps, Chief of Naval Operations, Chief of Staff of the Air Force, Chief of Space Operations, and Chief of the National Guard Bureau. Sitting members include only formally appointed members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who have assumed their position. If an individual is formally appointed to one of the above positions and assumes office during this market’s timeframe, that individual will thereafter be considered a sitting member. Any acting, interim, or temporary holder of a position on the Joint Chiefs of Staff does not qualify, unless they are subsequently formally appointed and assume the position. An announcement of a sitting member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If a sitting member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).