Another US Joint Chiefs of Staff member out by April 30?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$1.7K
Liquidity
$15.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 108.1h
- 11:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 108h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:54PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 3¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 4¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting member of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff ceases to hold their respective position on the Joint Chiefs of Staff for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Positions on the Joint Chiefs of Staff include: Chairman, Vice Chairman, Chief of Staff of the Army, Commandant of the Marine Corps, Chief of Naval Operations, Chief of Staff of the Air Force, Chief of Space Operations, and Chief of the National Guard Bureau. Sitting members include only formally appointed members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who have assumed their position. If an individual is formally appointed to one of the above positions and assumes office during this market’s timeframe, that individual will thereafter be considered a sitting member. Any acting, interim, or temporary holder of a position on the Joint Chiefs of Staff does not qualify, unless they are subsequently formally appointed and assume the position. An announcement of a sitting member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If a sitting member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).