Francavilla: Toby Samuel vs Stefanos Sakellaridis
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.5pp
24h Vol
$3.3K
Liquidity
$3.9K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 55¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 156.2h
Price movement
-6.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 51¢-1.0
Set 1 Winner: Samuel vs Sakellaridis
Other · Vol $0.00
- 76¢+26.0
Samuel vs. Sakellaridis: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 39¢-18.5
Toby Samuel vs. Stefanos Sakellaridis: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 54¢+4.0
Samuel vs. Sakellaridis: Match O/U 21.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 53¢+2.5
Samuel vs. Sakellaridis: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 46¢-4.0
Samuel vs. Sakellaridis: Match O/U 22.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 27¢-23.0
Samuel vs. Sakellaridis: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Samuel vs. Sakellaridis: Match O/U 23.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢0.0
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $6.3M
- 100¢+0.1
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
Other · Vol $5.0M
- 100¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluigi Basile
Other · Vol $610.9K
- 0¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaime Faria
Other · Vol $383.9K
- 1¢-50.4
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?
Other · Vol $292.3K
- 84¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Taylor Townsend vs Rebecca Sramkova
Other · Vol $288.0K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Toby Samuel and Stefanos Sakellaridis in the Francavilla, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Stefanos Sakellaridis. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Sakellaridis' if Stefanos Sakellaridis advances against Toby Samuel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.