UnclassifiedExpires May 4, 2026
Creator

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?

Probability

44¢

1h

-7.0pp

24h

-7.0pp

24h Vol

$81.6K

Liquidity

$2.8K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Wall Street Journal
Link
wsj.com
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 1, 2026, 13:00May 4, 2026, 11:50
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 7pp over 24h

    Now 44¢; -7.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 29.1× turnover

    $81.6k traded against $2.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 8h.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 8 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 20:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 8.1h

    HIGH
  • 11:51Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 8h.

    LOW

Price movement

-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.

Biggest hourly move: +15.5pp at 08:00 (to 66¢).

Show 7 hourly moves
  • 10:00 · +12.5pp → 66¢
  • 09:00 · +7.5pp → 61¢
  • 08:00 · +15.5pp → 66¢
  • 06:00 · +14.0pp → 65¢
  • 05:00 · +15.0pp → 65¢
  • 03:00 · +13.0pp → 63¢
  • 02:00 · +12.5pp → 63¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, May 4, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, May 4, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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