Walton vs. Bu: Match O/U 22.5
Probability
0¢
1h
-10.4pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.5K
Liquidity
$87.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 160.6h
- 10:24SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Adam Walton and Yunchaokete Bu in the Wuxi, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed across all sets equals or exceeds 23. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks—including any Champions/Super tiebreak—count as one (1) game toward the total. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
tennis matchReason
Generic tennis-match marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Walton vs. Bu: Match O/U 22.5"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 10:24:00 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -10.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T03:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $87.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
