Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 8, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 8, 2026
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary social media post and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: @NFL
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary social media post and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Bad Bunny is scheduled to perform at halftime of Super Bowl LX on February 8, 2026. Each year, the official NFL YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL) posts a video of the complete halftime show shortly after the game. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the video posted by the NFL of the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show becomes the most viewed Super Bowl halftime show video on the NFL YouTube channel by March 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the view counts for Super Bowl halftime show videos posted by the official NFL YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL). Only the view counts for posted videos of complete Super Bowl halftime shows/performances will count (e.g. the video titled “Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl Halftime Show” at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDorKy-13ak). View counts for other videos posted by the NFL will not impact this market’s resolution. The video posted by the NFL of the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show will be considered to have become the most viewed NFL super bowl halftime show video on the NFL YouTube channel if its total view count is higher for any period of time than any other qualifying NFL Super Bowl halftime show video. A tie in the number of views will not count. If no video of the Bad Bunny Super Bowl LX halftime show is posted on YouTube by the NFL by March 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the NFL posts multiple videos of Bad Bunny’s complete halftime performance on YouTube, the view count for any of the videos may count. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the official NFL YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/@NFL), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nfl Reason
NFL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 07:49:08 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -0.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Mar 8, 2026 (2026-03-08T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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