SportsExpires Jan 1, 2028

Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Probability

95¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+3.0pp

24h Vol

$1.7K

Liquidity

$18.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 23:00Apr 25, 2026, 22:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 95¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $18.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 14767.0h

    LOW

Price movement

+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 95¢.

Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at 16:00 (to 95¢).

Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
  • 22:00 · +4.0pp → 95¢
  • 21:00 · +4.0pp → 95¢
  • 20:00 · +4.0pp → 95¢
  • 19:00 · +4.5pp → 95¢
  • 17:00 · +4.5pp → 95¢
  • 16:00 · +4.5pp → 95¢
  • 15:00 · +4.0pp → 94¢
  • 13:00 · +4.0pp → 94¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Billion's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Billions (https://x.com/billions_ntwk) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
using the total token supply multiplied by the token price
Link
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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