Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$45.16
Liquidity
$9.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 14¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.4h
- 16:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 17¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 17¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 17¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds the market capitalization of the largest publicly traded company in the world. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Market cap values for both BTC and companies will be taken directly from Google Finance. If Google Finance is unavailable, a consensus of credible financial data providers will be used.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).