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CryptoExpires Dec 31, 2026

Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$45.16

Liquidity

$9.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:37
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 9.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5983.4h

    LOW
  • 16:37Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 10¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds the market capitalization of the largest publicly traded company in the world. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Market cap values for both BTC and companies will be taken directly from Google Finance. If Google Finance is unavailable, a consensus of credible financial data providers will be used.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).