0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029
0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
166
Open notional
$71.1K
Total PnL
$-14.4M
Realised
$-6.8M
Win rate
21%
62 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 166- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
20592 shares @ 92.6¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$19.5K
$399.65
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
15076 shares @ 86.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.2K
$212.36
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
14709 shares @ 38.6¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$8.2K
$2.5K
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
37973 shares @ 14.6¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.5K
$-49.90
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
5631 shares @ 11.1¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.8K
$4.2K
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
3882 shares @ 85.9¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.4K
$22.78
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
3927 shares @ 79.3¢·now 79.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.1K
$16.45
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?
2777 shares @ 87.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$101.75
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
5227 shares @ 40.8¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.2K
$35.58
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
2041 shares @ 55.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.2K
$20.82
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.8KJul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$293.49Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$29.92Jul 28, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$29.92Jul 28, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$89.76Jul 28, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$252.01Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$624.55Jul 28, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$192.34Jul 28, 17:37 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed Decision in July?$18.0KJul 28, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$956.00Jul 28, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.0KJul 28, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.1KJul 28, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.1KJul 28, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.0KJul 28, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.0KJul 28, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$5.61Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.41Jul 28, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.84Jul 28, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$13.35Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$57.48Jul 28, 17:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 62 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
62 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
$7.3K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $530.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 62 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.