SportsExpires May 8, 2026
Creator

BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

Probability

46¢

1h

-11.5pp

24h

-8.5pp

24h Vol

$521.59

Liquidity

$1.73

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (90.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 4, 2026, 22:00May 8, 2026, 19:03
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T19-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 9pp over 24h

    Now 46¢; -11.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 90.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 19:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 18:30Resolve

    Expiry passed 1h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

-8.5pp over the last 24h, now 46¢.

Biggest hourly move: -10.0pp at 19:00 (to 46¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · -10.0pp → 46¢
  • 07:00 · -3.0pp → 53¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming Bundesliga game between BV Borussia 09 Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt, scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if there are 10 or more total corners awarded in this game (combining corners for both teams). If the total number of corners is fewer than 10, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to corners awarded within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Corners awarded during extra time or penalty shootouts do not count. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

bundesliga

Reason

Bundesliga — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 19:03:30 GMT, YES is priced at 46% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -8.5pp in the last 24 hours, -11.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T18:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$521.59 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $523.63. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.73. Spread between best bid and best ask: 90.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
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