Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$28.78
Liquidity
$3.3K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 115.3h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.
Biggest hourly move: +21.0pp at 4d ago (to 46¢).
Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -16.0pp → 30¢
- 3d ago · +9.0pp → 33¢
- 3d ago · +10.0pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +10.5pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +10.5pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +9.0pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +9.0pp → 35¢
- 4d ago · +21.0pp → 46¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 8¢-1.5
Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)
Other · Vol $0.00
- 15¢+2.5
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢-0.5
Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)
Other · Vol $0.00
- 80¢+0.5
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 56¢-0.5
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5
Other · Vol $98.40
- 34¢+1.5
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5
Other · Vol $104.13
- 17¢+1.0
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 56¢+1.5
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score
Other · Vol $0.00
- 0¢0.0
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Other · Vol $206.9K
- 67¢+22.5
Santos: Valerio Aboian vs Pedro Sakamoto
Other · Vol $178.2K
- 100¢+0.1
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Other · Vol $167.9K
- 100¢+22.4
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11?
Other · Vol $150.1K
- 100¢+65.5
Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Eduardo Ribeiro
Other · Vol $147.8K
- 7¢-11.7
Santos: Santiago De La Fuente vs Franco Roncadelli
Other · Vol $146.2K
Market Description
In the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 10 at 1:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "1. FSV Mainz 05" if 1. FSV Mainz 05 win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1. FC Union Berlin". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.