UnclassifiedExpires Jan 1, 2028
Creator

Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch?

Probability

98¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$5.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
using the total token supply multiplied by the token price
Link
x.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+11.7pp 7d
1007550250
98¢
May 7, 2026, 01:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 00:11 UTC
updated 00:12:04 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T00-12Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jan 1, 05:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 14332.8h

    LOW
  • 00:12Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.

Biggest hourly move: +7.2pp at 03:00 (to 98¢).

Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves
  • 00:00 · +6.7pp → 98¢
  • 23:00 · +6.7pp → 98¢
  • 21:00 · +6.7pp → 98¢
  • 03:00 · +7.2pp → 98¢
  • May 13, 00:00 UTC · +6.7pp → 98¢
  • May 9, 23:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 93¢
  • May 9, 21:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 93¢
  • May 9, 13:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 94¢
updated 00:12:04 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 00:12:04 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventCitrea FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Citrea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Citrea will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Citrea (https://x.com/citrea_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch?"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 00:12:04 GMT, YES is priced at 98% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +11.7pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jan 1, 2028 (2028-01-01T05:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

18 wallets
Open on Polymarket