T20 Blast: Sussex vs Surrey
Probability
1¢
1h
-5.9pp
24h
-41.4pp
24h Vol
$18.9K
Liquidity
$44.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalMomentum / follow-through
75% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewPaper governor not run here
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Momentum / follow-throughclear
75% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Paper governor not run heresource
This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 41pp over 24h
Now 1¢; -5.9pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved down 41.4pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 6¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: official statistics
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 1¢ current price
Orrery verification task T20 Blast: Sussex vs Surrey State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief T20 Blast: Sussex vs Surrey State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 3, 14:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 160.9h
- 21:04SignalHIGH
Momentum down
Probability moved down 41.4pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
-41.4pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -34.9pp at 21:00 (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 20 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -34.9pp → 1¢
- 20:00 · -29.0pp → 7¢
- Jun 25, 19:00 UTC · +17.0pp → 42¢
- Jun 25, 17:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 42¢
- Jun 25, 13:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 40¢
- Jun 25, 12:00 UTC · +16.5pp → 40¢
- Jun 25, 11:00 UTC · +19.0pp → 42¢
- Jun 25, 09:00 UTC · +18.5pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the cricket match between Sussex and Surrey scheduled for June 26 2026 in T20 Blast. This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
t20 blastReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "t20 blast" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "T20 Blast: Sussex vs Surrey"?
As of Fri, 26 Jun 2026 21:04:10 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -41.4pp in the last 24 hours, -5.9pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 3, 2026 (2026-07-03T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.espncricinfo.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$18.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $18.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $44.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.