MacroExpires May 28, 2026
Creator

Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings?

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+8.5pp

24h Vol

$801.30

Liquidity

$46.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 28, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
May 21, 2026, 22:00 UTCMay 28, 2026, 21:42 UTC
updated 21:42:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-28T21-42Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 8pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 21:42Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    HIGH
  • 21:00Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 1h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation

    HIGH

Price movement

+8.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: -26.0pp at May 24, 16:00 UTC (to 67¢).

Show top 8 of 74 hourly moves
  • May 27, 05:00 UTC · +17.5pp → 93¢
  • May 27, 04:00 UTC · +25.0pp → 92¢
  • May 25, 03:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 84¢
  • May 25, 02:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 84¢
  • May 25, 01:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 84¢
  • May 24, 23:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 84¢
  • May 24, 22:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 84¢
  • May 24, 16:00 UTC · -26.0pp → 67¢
updated 21:42:40 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 21:42:40 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

As of market creation, Dell Technologies is estimated to release earnings on May 28, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Dell Technologies’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.95 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dell Technologies reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.95 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Dell Technologies releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Macro

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nasdaq

Reason

Nasdaq index — Macro / Markets.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings?"?

As of Thu, 28 May 2026 21:42:40 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +8.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +7.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 28, 2026 (2026-05-28T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://seekingalpha.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$801.30 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $46.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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