Dead-Award
0x7122a0f36733a92681432cf0c1f5a3961edac9e4
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$1.73
Total PnL
$-176.79
Realised
$-3.99
Win rate
0%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate?
15 shares @ 7.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Sep 27, 2026$1.73
$0.68
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by June 30?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
400 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?
183 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00Jul 2, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?$1.56Jul 2, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$5.19Jul 2, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$1.03Jul 2, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.92Jul 2, 08:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?$1.01Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$1.02Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?$1.01Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?$1.02Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.01Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June?$1.04Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?$1.00Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$1.04Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$1.02Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$1.05Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June?$1.07Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$1.08Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.17Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June?$1.97Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026?$2.47Jun 30, 03:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 22:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 08:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.