Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
33¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+23.5pp
24h Vol
$1.9K
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 24pp over 24h
Now 33¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 70h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 70h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 70 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 70.1h
- 17:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 70h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+23.5pp over the last 24h, now 33¢.
Biggest hourly move: +26.0pp at 08:00 (to 46¢).
Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +14.0pp → 34¢
- 15:00 · +16.5pp → 33¢
- 14:00 · +17.5pp → 34¢
- 12:00 · +19.0pp → 33¢
- 11:00 · +19.5pp → 33¢
- 09:00 · +19.0pp → 38¢
- 08:00 · +26.0pp → 46¢
- 06:00 · +3.5pp → 27¢
- 05:00 · +7.5pp → 26¢
- 03:00 · -4.0pp → 22¢
- 00:00 · +9.0pp → 25¢
- 23:00 · -8.5pp → 16¢
- 21:00 · -10.5pp → 15¢
- 20:00 · -4.0pp → 16¢
- 18:00 · -15.5pp → 9¢
- 1d ago · -11.5pp → 10¢
- 1d ago · -14.0pp → 10¢
- 1d ago · -15.0pp → 9¢
- 1d ago · -12.0pp → 7¢
- 1d ago · -13.0pp → 8¢
- 1d ago · -14.0pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -14.5pp → 10¢
- 1d ago · -10.5pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -20.5pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 0¢0.0pp
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.2pp
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.2pp
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢+0.1pp
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Politics · Vol $7.9K
- 1¢+0.7pp
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Politics · Vol $10.4K
- 7¢+5.2pp
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Politics · Vol $2.8K
- 37¢+11.5pp
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Politics · Vol $1.1K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $643.7K
- 3¢+1.3pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $591.5K
- 5¢-0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $540.5K
- 0¢+0.1pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $376.6K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $340.8K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $330.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between April 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- @realDonaldTrumpSocial media posttruthsocial.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.