Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
36¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$984.03
Liquidity
$1.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+21.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 77.1h
- 10:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 37¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 37¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 36¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 36¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 39¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 39¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 28¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 30¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 30¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 27¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 19¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 26¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 28¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 28¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 26¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 28¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 28¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between April 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).