Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 150.8h
- 09:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 151h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 10¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 29¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 28¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.3pp
to 16¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 21¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 23¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.1pp
to 25¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 20¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 4¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.4pp
to 4¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 4¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 4¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.1pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.6pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.8pp
to 4¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.4pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.9pp
to 1¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between April 24, 12:00 PM ET and May 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrumpAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).