PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 2, 2026
Creator

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Probability

13¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$106.56

Liquidity

$399.82

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
12¢
May 23, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 25, 2026, 18:16 UTC
updated 18:16:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-25T18-16Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 13¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 7.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 2, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 189.7h

    LOW
  • 18:16Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

Biggest hourly move: -14.5pp at 18:16 (to 12¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 18:16 · -14.5pp → 12¢
  • 17:00 · -9.5pp → 16¢
updated 18:16:45 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 18:16:45 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

13
Same eventDonald Trump # Truth Social posts May 26 - June 2, 2026?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between May 26, 12:00 PM ET and June 2, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

trump

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 25 May 2026 18:16:45 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 2, 2026 (2026-06-02T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$106.56 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $268.70. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $399.82. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets
Open on Polymarket