Dota 2: AVULUS vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner

• 01
  Price move

  Down 19pp over 24h

  Now 31¢; flat in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Expires in 2h. Spread is extremely wide.

• 03
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 60.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

• 04
  Resolution proximity

  Expiry in 2h

  Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between AVULUS and Ilbirs eSports in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for April 30 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "AVULUS" if AVULUS win Game 1 against Ilbirs eSports. This market will resolve to "Ilbirs eSports" if Ilbirs eSports win Game 1 against AVULUS. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.