SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?

Probability

56¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$5.5K

Liquidity

$229.0K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Link
thefa.com
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.5pp 7d
Apr 29, 2026, 03:00May 6, 2026, 02:35
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T02-36Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $5.5k traded against $229.0k of visible liquidity (0.02× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 251.4h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 56¢.

Biggest hourly move: +4.0pp at 1d ago (to 56¢).

Show top 8 of 15 hourly moves
  • 14:00 · +3.5pp → 56¢
  • 12:00 · +3.5pp → 56¢
  • 11:00 · +3.5pp → 56¢
  • 09:00 · +3.5pp → 56¢
  • 06:00 · +4.0pp → 56¢
  • 04:00 · +4.0pp → 56¢
  • 03:00 · +4.0pp → 56¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 56¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventChelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 16, 2026 If Manchester City FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket