Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-6.9pp
24h Vol
$77.3K
Liquidity
$4.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 146.4h
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 17¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 17¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.8pp
to 17¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.7pp
to 22¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 22¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.4pp
to 21¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 22¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 23¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.9pp
to 23¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.2pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.1pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.1pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.4pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.9pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.3pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.1pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 21¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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