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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 27, 2026

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

Probability

37¢

1h

-3.0pp

24h

-9.0pp

24h Vol

$8.5K

Liquidity

$4.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 23, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  1. 1

    Down 9pp over 24h

    Now 37¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.0× turnover

    $8.5k traded against $4.2k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  3. 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 48h with open resolution ambiguity.

  4. 4

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  5. 5

    Expiry in 48h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 48 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 48.1h

    HIGH
  • 15:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 48h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventElon Musk # tweets April 25 - April 27, 2026?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 25 12:00 PM ET to April 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

20 wallets
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