What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?"?

As of Sun, 03 May 2026 12:50:36 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.6pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 12, 2026. Resolution is determined from https://x.com/elonmusk.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$9.4K traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $12.2K. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $5.2K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-400-419 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-5-may-12-400-419/markdown.

TechMulti-outcomeExpires May 12, 2026

Creator

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Probability

1¢

+0.0pp

24h

+0.6pp

24h Vol

$9.4K

Liquidity

$5.2K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 12, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 2, 2026, 05:00May 3, 2026, 12:50

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 1.8× turnover
$9.4k traded against $5.2k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 12, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 219.2h
LOW

Price movement

+0.6pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 5 12:00 PM ET to May 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket