Scornful-Conductor
0x1e82e3eb816aaf755ac9b44bc9d98f01b08aaf92
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-44.7K
Realised
$-3.4K
Win rate
23%
111 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
57074 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-61.81
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
49206 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-67.66
- YES
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
46420 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.65
- YES
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
42503 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- YES
Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
42266 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.37
- YES
Will the Momentum Movement (Momentum) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
42266 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.37
- YES
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
42118 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
42118 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
42118 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
39088 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-7.74
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?$3.37Jun 4, 07:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$1.11May 30, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$1.12May 23, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrej Kramarić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.69May 18, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.05May 18, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.05May 18, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.05May 18, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$1.10May 18, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$1.35May 18, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$1.35May 18, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?$0.36May 18, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.05May 18, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ajay Mitchell win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?$0.36May 18, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kim David be the Republican nominee for OK-01?$2.36May 18, 13:15 UTC
- REWARD$0.48May 18, 10:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 111 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
111 closed markets, 23% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $0.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 12:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 111 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.