Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 4.5
Probability
17¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$633.96
Liquidity
$19.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 17¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $19.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Expiry in 1h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 16:30ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.1h
- 15:25SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Premier League game between Arsenal FC and Newcastle United FC, scheduled for April 25 at 12:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Arsenal FC and Newcastle United FC combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on premierleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.premierleague.com/News consensus
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).