Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell?
Probability
1¢
1h
-46.9pp
24h
-48.9pp
24h Vol
$107.38
Liquidity
$333.15
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the driver who finishes ahead of the other at the F1 Catalunya Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 14, 2026LinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-48.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 49pp over 24h
Now 1¢; -46.9pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $333 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the driver who finishes ahead of the other at the F1 Catalunya Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 14, 2026LinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 1¢ current price
Orrery verification task Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 21, 13:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 165.1h
- 15:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-48.9pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -48.9pp at 15:52 (to 1¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- 15:52 · -48.9pp → 1¢
- 12:00 · -25.0pp → 25¢
- 10:00 · -25.0pp → 25¢
- 09:00 · -25.0pp → 25¢
- 07:00 · -25.0pp → 25¢
- 05:00 · -25.0pp → 25¢
- 03:00 · -25.0pp → 25¢
- 00:00 · -24.5pp → 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the driver who finishes ahead of the other at the F1 Catalunya Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 14, 2026. If Leclerc finishes ahead of Russell, this market will resolve to "Leclerc". If Russell finishes ahead of Leclerc, this market will resolve to "Russell". In the case of a tie between two drivers, this market will resolve 50-50. If the Catalunya Grand Prix is postponed this market will remain open until the vent has been completed. If the Catalunya Grand Prix is permanently canceled this market will resolve 50-50. If either driver fails to finish the race (including DNF, DSQ, or any other non-finish), the driver who completes more laps will be considered to have finished ahead. If both drivers complete the same number of laps, this market will resolve 50-50, regardless of the order in which they retired. This rule applies even if one or both drivers are unclassified in the FIA “Final Classification.” This market will resolve based on the "Final Classification" published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The "Final Classification" is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 15:53:00 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -48.9pp in the last 24 hours, -46.9pp in the last hour, and -48.9pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 21, 2026 (2026-06-21T13:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$107.38 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $107.38. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $333.15. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.6¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.