Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 30pp over 24h

  Now 0¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Volume pressure

  Heavy volume on this book — 4.1× turnover

  $278.9k traded against $67.5k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

• 03
  Active signal

  Momentum observation firing

  Probability moved down 29.6pp in 24h with 4.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 04
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 : - Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland - Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.

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