SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 21, 2026
Creator

Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.1pp

24h Vol

$30.14

Liquidity

$3.1K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
formula1.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.9pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 30, 2026, 04:00 UTCJun 6, 2026, 03:31 UTC
updated 03:31:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-06T03-31Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $3.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 1¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 21, 13:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 369.5h

    LOW

Price movement

-1.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 03:31:48 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 03:31:48 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventCatalunya Grand Prix: Driver Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 14, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 21, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Sports

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

f1

Reason

Question text contains "f1" — matched the Sports keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?"?

As of Sat, 06 Jun 2026 03:31:48 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 21, 2026 (2026-06-21T13:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$30.14 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $253.13. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

12 wallets
Open on Polymarket