Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.2pp
24h Vol
$28.13
Liquidity
$13.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-11.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $13.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 102.2h
- 17:50SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.1pp at 17:00 (to 3¢).
Show all 29 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -7.1pp → 3¢
- 15:00 · -6.5pp → 3¢
- 14:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 12:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 11:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 09:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 08:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 06:00 · -5.7pp → 3¢
- 05:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 03:00 · -6.5pp → 3¢
- 02:00 · -6.5pp → 3¢
- 00:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 23:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 21:00 · -6.3pp → 3¢
- 20:00 · -6.1pp → 3¢
- 18:00 · -6.1pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -6.1pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -6.1pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -6.2pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -6.1pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -6.1pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -5.9pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -5.2pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -5.2pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -5.2pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -5.3pp → 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
11- 0¢-3.4pp
Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?
Geopolitics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.4pp
Israel strike on Damascus by December 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.8pp
Israel strike on Damascus by October 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-1.8pp
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $0.00
- 41¢+11.0pp
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $14.71
- 0¢-0.1pp
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $11.3M
- 4¢-6.9pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.9M
- 1¢-2.1pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.2M
- 18¢-51.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.0M
- 3¢-58.1pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $822.2K
- 0¢-9.5pp
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $765.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.