KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+50.4pp
24h Vol
$8.1K
Liquidity
$64.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 50pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $8.1k traded against $64.9k of visible liquidity (0.12× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 28, 09:30 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 160.5h
- 16:57SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+50.4pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +49.0pp at 13:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +49.0pp → 100¢
- 13:00 · +49.0pp → 100¢
- 11:00 · +29.0pp → 80¢
- 09:00 · -7.5pp → 44¢
- 08:00 · -8.5pp → 43¢
- May 19, 19:00 UTC · -11.0pp → 39¢
- May 19, 17:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 37¢
- May 19, 16:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market on the KBO baseball game between LG Twins and Kia Tigers, scheduled for May 21 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "LG Twins" if the LG Twins win the game. This market will resolve to "Kia Tigers" if the Kia Tigers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the KBO. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
tigersReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "tigers" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers"?
As of Thu, 21 May 2026 16:57:51 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +50.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 28, 2026 (2026-05-28T09:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.koreabaseball.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.koreabaseball.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$8.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $64.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.