Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
70¢
1h
+11.5pp
24h
+36.5pp
24h Vol
$152.86
Liquidity
$135.15
Probability (last 7 days)
+19.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 37pp over 24h
Now 70¢; +11.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 70h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 70h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 70 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 70.1h
- 17:51SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 70h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+23.5pp over the last 24h, now 70¢.
Biggest hourly move: +40.0pp at 17:00 (to 69¢).
Show all 26 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +40.0pp → 69¢
- 15:00 · +23.0pp → 48¢
- 13:00 · +19.5pp → 47¢
- 09:00 · +23.5pp → 49¢
- 08:00 · +23.0pp → 51¢
- 06:00 · +24.5pp → 49¢
- 05:00 · +25.5pp → 51¢
- 03:00 · +19.0pp → 47¢
- 02:00 · +18.0pp → 47¢
- 00:00 · +19.0pp → 47¢
- 23:00 · +22.0pp → 47¢
- 21:00 · +19.0pp → 47¢
- 20:00 · +17.5pp → 47¢
- 18:00 · +19.0pp → 46¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 31¢
- 1d ago · -13.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · +6.5pp → 32¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · +5.0pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -20.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -26.5pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -26.5pp → 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- @khamenei_irSocial media postx.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.