Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
3¢
1h
-1.1pp
24h
-22.6pp
24h Vol
$65.75
Liquidity
$79.93
Probability (last 7 days)
-23.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 23pp over 24h
Now 3¢; -1.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 68h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $80 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
Expiry in 68h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 68 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 68.3h
- 19:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 68h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-20.5pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -23.5pp at 19:00 (to 4¢).
Show all 20 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -23.5pp → 4¢
- 17:00 · -16.0pp → 11¢
- 15:00 · +4.5pp → 28¢
- 09:00 · -6.0pp → 19¢
- 08:00 · -6.5pp → 20¢
- 07:00 · -3.5pp → 25¢
- 03:00 · +4.0pp → 28¢
- 21:00 · -3.5pp → 25¢
- 20:00 · -5.0pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · +15.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 28¢
- 2d ago · -19.5pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- @khamenei_irSocial media postx.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.