Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+47.9pp
24h Vol
$70.00
Liquidity
$711.54
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 48pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $712 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 05:34SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 04:50Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 1h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
+47.9pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +48.5pp at 02:00 (to 99¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 05:00 · +48.5pp → 99¢
- 04:00 · +48.5pp → 99¢
- 02:00 · +48.5pp → 99¢
- 10:00 · +3.0pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 52¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market is about whether any player achieves a Quadra Kill during Game 3. In League of Legends, a Quadra Kill occurs when a single player kills 4 enemy champions in rapid succession. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves a Quadra Kill during Game 3. This market will resolve to "No" if no player achieves a Quadra Kill. A Penta Kill (5 kills in rapid succession) also counts as a Quadra Kill having occurred for the purposes of this market. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 3 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 3 begins but is not completed and ends via surrender, this market will resolve based on whether a Quadra Kill occurred prior to stoppage. If no Quadra Kill occurred, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 3 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill?"?
As of Mon, 11 May 2026 05:34:54 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +47.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T04:50:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$70.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $70.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $711.54. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
