First Blood in Game 2?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+50.0pp
24h Vol
$134.66
Liquidity
$261.6K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 01Price move
Up 50pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 50.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.
- 04Resolution proximity
Expiry in 1h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
- 05UMA status
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 18:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.3h
- 16:43SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 50.0pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 16:43SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+50.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +49.0pp at 16:43 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 16:43 · +49.0pp → 100¢
- 15:00 · +48.5pp → 100¢
- 14:00 · +48.5pp → 100¢
- 13:00 · -26.0pp → 25¢
- 11:00 · -27.0pp → 24¢
- 10:00 · -27.0pp → 24¢
- 09:00 · -11.5pp → 40¢
- 07:00 · -4.0pp → 47¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming match between Ultra Prime and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for April 30 at 7:00AM ET: This market will resolve to the team that secures the first blood in Game 2. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to stoppage. If the first blood did not occur, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is remade, this market will resolve to whichever team secured the first blood prior to the remake. If the first blood did not occur prior to the remake, resolution will be based on the remade game. If Game 2 is completed but first blood never occurred, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.