Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
Probability
42¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-10.5pp
24h Vol
$146.55
Liquidity
$1.1K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 11pp over 24h
Now 42¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 47¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 174.6h
Price movement
-10.5pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.
Biggest hourly move: -15.5pp at 11:00 (to 42¢).
Show top 8 of 23 hourly moves
- 11:00 · -15.5pp → 42¢
- 09:00 · -8.0pp → 43¢
- 08:00 · -7.0pp → 44¢
- 06:00 · -7.0pp → 44¢
- 04:00 · -7.0pp → 44¢
- 00:00 · -7.0pp → 45¢
- 22:00 · -7.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 44¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for May 1 at 2:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Arizona Diamondbacks or Chicago Cubs. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.