Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Probability
52¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$591.48
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 52¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $591 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 47¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 169.6h
Price movement
+7.0pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: -12.0pp at 2d ago (to 33¢).
Show top 8 of 29 hourly moves
- 14:00 · +7.0pp → 52¢
- 13:00 · +7.0pp → 52¢
- 11:00 · +7.0pp → 52¢
- 20:00 · +7.0pp → 52¢
- 18:00 · +9.0pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +7.5pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -12.0pp → 33¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming MLB game between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for April 30 at 12:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Houston Astros or Baltimore Orioles. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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