SportsExpires

MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season?

Probability

20¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-20.5pp

24h Vol

$20.00

Liquidity

$299.68

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:05
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 21pp over 24h

    Now 20¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 25¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-21.0pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.

Biggest hourly move: -24.0pp at 3d ago (to 17¢).

Show all 45 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 13:00 · +3.0pp → 20¢
  • 08:00 · +22.5pp → 40¢
  • 06:00 · +19.5pp → 37¢
  • 05:00 · +20.0pp → 37¢
  • 03:00 · +23.5pp → 40¢
  • 02:00 · +24.0pp → 41¢
  • 00:00 · +22.0pp → 39¢
  • 22:00 · +24.0pp → 41¢
  • 20:00 · +23.5pp → 41¢
  • 1d ago · +23.0pp → 40¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -7.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -7.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -7.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -8.0pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -24.0pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -24.0pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -9.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -9.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -9.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -9.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -23.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -24.0pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -24.0pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -24.0pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -6.0pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -5.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -5.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -5.5pp → 17¢
  • 3d ago · -6.0pp → 17¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve “Yes” if any player throws a Perfect Game in any game during the 2026 MLB season (including postseason). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “Perfect Game” is achieved when a pitcher throws a complete game without allowing a baserunner. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined if a Perfect Game occurred within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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