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OtherExpires May 3, 2026

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Probability

51¢

1h

+1.5pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$87.42

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:18
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 51¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 194h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 50.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 193.9h

    LOW
  • 16:18Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 194h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 16:18Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for April 26 at 2:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Seattle Mariners or St. Louis Cardinals. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.mlb.com/scoresNews consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (50.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.