SportsExpires Apr 26, 2026

Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5

Probability

1h

-17.4pp

24h

-46.5pp

24h Vol

$11.2K

Liquidity

$260.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 25, 2026, 20:00Apr 26, 2026, 21:37
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  • 1

    Down 46pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -17.4pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $11.2k traded against $260.3k of visible liquidity (0.04× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 3

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 46.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 4

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 5

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 21:37Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 46.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 21:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 18:15Resolve

    Market resolved 3h ago

    HIGH

Price movement

-46.5pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for April 26 at 2:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
MLB.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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