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OtherExpires Apr 30, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?

Probability

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-0.9pp

24h Vol

$5.9K

Liquidity

$34.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:34
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $5.9k traded against $34.1k of visible liquidity (0.17× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 105.4h

    LOW
  • 14:34Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 14:34Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -3.4pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.2pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.2pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.9pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.7pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.9pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).