Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.9pp
24h Vol
$5.9K
Liquidity
$34.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $5.9k traded against $34.1k of visible liquidity (0.17× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 105.4h
- 14:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:34PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 2¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 2¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 2¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 2¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 2¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 2¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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