Near-Familiar
0x6139c42e48cf190e67a0a85d492413b499336b7a
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$467.5K
Total PnL
$-300.6K
Realised
$-15.7K
Win rate
61%
98 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
424408 shares @ 29.2¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$195.2K
$71.4K
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
72277 shares @ 35.7¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$31.4K
$5.7K
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
28611 shares @ 53.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$28.5K
$13.1K
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
33295 shares @ 37.5¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.0K
$12.5K
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
68542 shares @ 24.1¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$16.1K
$-394.12
- NO
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
10633 shares @ 81.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.6K
$1.9K
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
10000 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.0K
$415.00
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
10000 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.7K
$645.00
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
24361 shares @ 49.8¢·now 37.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.1K
$-3.0K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
94676 shares @ 14.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.0K
$-4.3K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$83.31Jul 29, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$1.38Jul 29, 15:22 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.48Jul 29, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$257.52Jul 29, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.70Jul 29, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$30.00Jul 29, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$12.76Jul 29, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$3.52Jul 29, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$56.65Jul 29, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$193.09Jul 29, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 29, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$4.64Jul 29, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$12.18Jul 29, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$652.20Jul 29, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$9.00Jul 29, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.19Jul 29, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$241.00Jul 29, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$0.82Jul 29, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?$6.10Jul 29, 12:01 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$148.50Jul 29, 11:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$44.2K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 13, 01:10 UTC → Jul 5, 02:17 UTC
- BUYAnother US strike on Venezuela by December 31?$6.0K@94¢Jun 13, 01:05 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
61% win rate over 98 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
98 closed markets, 61% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
$38.2K · 86% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $134.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 09:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 15:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 98 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.