Bitter-Cartoon
0xa0bca9bdd8540da95060ed1fafb78aa03835d428
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$37.0K
Total PnL
$-9.0K
Realised
$14.1K
Win rate
85%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
2532 shares @ 83.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$224.85
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 89.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$50.00
- NO
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
1698 shares @ 95.8¢·now 96.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$5.75
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2100 shares @ 78.1¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$-43.49
- NO
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
3759 shares @ 42.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$-245.01
- NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
1246 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$27.41
- NO
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1143 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.1K
$3.97
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
2200 shares @ 52.5¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$-44.99
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
1274 shares @ 84.3¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$2.33
- NO
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
1509 shares @ 47.1¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$307.74
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$114.00Jul 28, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$135.99Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$120.00Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$14.82Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$12.70Jul 28, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$66.00Jul 28, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$136.00Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$36.71Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?$392.40Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$190.00Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$78.00Jul 28, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$125.60Jul 28, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$246.00Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$91.80Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$30.60Jul 28, 22:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.72Jul 28, 21:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$1.74Jul 28, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$123.89Jul 28, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$35.00Jul 28, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$76.00Jul 28, 20:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 91 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
91 closed markets, 85% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $76.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.