Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $430 on April 29?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 50pp over 24h

  Now 0¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 03
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $3.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

• 04
  Resolution proximity

  Past expiry — awaiting resolution

  Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

• 05
  UMA status

  UMA status: proposed

  An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on April 29 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."