Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?
Probability
36¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$97.00
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 36¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5940h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 55.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5939.9h
- 12:03SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5940h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: -13.0pp at 08:00 (to 36¢).
Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves
- 08:00 · -13.0pp → 36¢
- 07:00 · -10.0pp → 36¢
- 06:00 · -10.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -10.0pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · +10.5pp → 48¢
- 3d ago · +12.5pp → 49¢
- 4d ago · -10.0pp → 37¢
- 4d ago · -12.0pp → 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nara Smith announces that she is pregnant between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice. The resolution source will be statements from Nara Smith or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (55.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.