New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?

1. 1

   Down 6pp over 24h

   Now 39¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5287h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 71.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MLB and MLBPA sign a a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A new CBA will be considered ‘signed’ only when the final written agreement has been formally signed by authorized representatives of both the MLB and the MLB Players Association. Tentative agreements, ratifications, or agreements pending signature do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.